The graded stakes horses stabled here have been putting on a great show. As
usual. Debuts of the juveniles Birdstone and Value Plus were something to
behold.
Saratoga in a nutshell and why it's the best race meet on the planet.
On balance, however, the first two weeks of this session have been furlongs from the
nirvana horseplayers have to come expect. This year, it seems that the day-to-day Saratoga fare
has become victim of past successes and its own lofty reputation.
Every horseman, everyone, wants to win
here. Perhaps this concept of a "super meet" is as dangerous to the
well being of handicappers and bettors as those races dominated by the "super
trainer."
In a recent Washington Post column, feted horseplayer Andy Beyer wrote about
the advent of the super trainer and how horsemen with percentages higher
than the winning rate of post time favorites are distorting the results to the
extent that traditional handicapping techniques have become moot. Trainer
handicapping; not horse handicapping.
With the sport's most powerful horsemen pointing for Saratoga, they come here
loaded for bear. Paraphrasing the line delivered by Mrs. Carl Reiner in the
famed restaurant scene from the movie "When Harry Met Sally," trainers
on the backside here are looking at Bobby Frankel and saying: "I'll have what he's
having."
Todd Pletcher, his gang of 2-year-olds, and stakes stars present and
future, is on a record pace to smash Hall of Famer Sylvester Veitch's Spa
training record of 24 wins in 24 days. And it doesn't look like he's going to need six
weeks to do so. He already has 15. Add the usual array of high percentage, high
profile world class trainers and is it any wonder why favorites never seem
to lose here anymore?
After two weeks, favorites are winning at 48 percent. If you're making money
at this meet, consider yourself blessed. Indeed, if you're cashing all those
tickets on favorites,
know that the money in your pocket is only on loan from the association. Without
an occasional score, you will not withstand the pari-mutuel take even if NYRA's
is the lowest in the country on straight wagers.
But this is what can happen at a super meet, featuring super trainers and
super jockeys. As you read this, three jockeys, Jerry Bailey, John Velazquez and
Edgar Prado, are winning over half the races. Jockey handicapping; not horse
handicapping. Winning horseplayers at Saratoga these days are little more than lemmings, following the obvious
all the way to the cashier's window. With the exception of those graded stakes races
and a handful of exciting 2-year-olds, the daily fare has become boringly routine.
No wonder handle is down despite the fact that winning favorites routinely make
for more churn.
The percentage of winning favorites likely will revert to a more reasonable
33-to-35 percent, still high, but within reason. A return to normal percentages
can create opportunities for real value, like the 6.70-1 offered on Strong Hope
because prepping Empire Maker was over-bet at 3-10. But those
opportunities have been precious few.
Diary, I can no longer afford to pick 37 percent winners at the meet. They're
beating my brains in and misery does not love company, even though I hear the
same story everywhere I go. So, in the name of tradition, I'm calling an
audible. This used to be a 24-day stand. So be it. For me, the real Saratoga
meet begins today.
Wednesday, July 30: You can go home again, and Teresa
Pompay can have one ready to run! Debuting state-bred Stand On Top withstood
stretch-long pressure to defeat Star Celebrity, especially worth noting
because when a Todd Pletcher-trained 2-year-old gets beat, it's major
news these days...The second baby race of the day and a riding double for Cornelio
Velasquez. Velasquez was partnered with a Wayne Lukas 2-year-old from
Kentucky. They've all been running from there and Golden Tones was no
exception. Third finisher Exciting Metro took a circuitous route through
the straight and is worth noting. Ditto Pam's Wildcat who flipped over in
the paddock and deserves another chance... Price inflated Dixie Waltz withstood
pace pressure throughout as the Nick Zito runners continue to race well;
odds-on Renaissance Lady never recovering from her gate problems but
appearing empty throughout, anyway. Double Scoop was so sharp that Pat
Day had her on the sprint engine throughout. Looks ready to rejoin stakes
company.
Thursday, July 31: Final Table pressed an extremely fast pace
throughout, so along came Graze to get the money. Not many have flown
down the center of the track at this meeting to win. Debuting Marylebone did
something you seldom see from a 2-year-old, rally boldly on the fence to win.
Gutsy filly is Pletcher trainee. Sheer Luck made a strong, wide rally in
same race; note... When you're going well... Pletcher's Go Deputy drew
off to win the fifth on turf after drawing in from the also-eligibles. It was an
impressive two-move, late rally performance... Shug McGaughey has a
runner in A Great Team, who handled his debut with complete authority.
Some race with a name is sure to be in his future, probably sooner than later...
Bailey could not have been more confident aboard Andover Lady, distaining
the soft pace to run down nine rivals late. Apprentice Shannon Uske broke
her Saratoga maiden aboard Allen Jerkens' Lilah. Rushing up after
breaking tardily, the filly was tiring in the final furlong but Uske didn't
rattle or get whip happy. She hand-rode Lilah and the sprinter lasted. Good for
Uske, job nicely done.
Friday, August 1: Seems to me owner-trainer Sam Lerman is
due some good fortune. All his runners, including Cupasoup in today's
second race are outrunning their odds and getting beat in the final stages... A
demonstration of what makes Bailey, well, Bailey, in today's fifth race when he
cleverly positioned and got through on the entire field, coming up the fence
under a strong-rally Cloak of Vagueness for Phil Hauswald...
Three-year-old turf filly Marc's Rainbow was much the best taking her
preliminary allowance condition and looks set to re-join stakes company sometime
soon... Duke's Crossing one of a handlful of runners to win from the
clouds at speed-favoring Saratoga beneath a fist-pumping Bailey. Wow! Thought
fist pumps at his level were reserved for graded stakes. But that's why I love
this game; learning something new every day... First two finishers in the
Honorable Miss ran great. Shine Again, surprisingly sharp and on the pace
throughout, just missed in an extremely game effort. Upsetter Willa On The
Move, 9-2 in the gate and 5-2 at the quarter pole, made bold wide rally to
be up in time, handling the off going very well. What a nice filly. Hope they
both come back for the Ballerina.
Saturday, August 2: Whitney Day. So why shouldn't the party continue
for Marylou, John Henderson and Nick Zito? And what better place
than in the winners' circle? Birdstone, a half brother to multiple Grade
1 winner Birdtown, won his first start as comprehensively as any juvenile
debuting here in my memory. Fast, professional, a good mover and, did I mention
fast? Today's damp surface was especially glib, but 6-furlongs in 1:10 for a
debutting youngster is, you know, fast. Zito thinking Hopeful, but don't be
surprised if he pops up in an allowance race next, if Mike Lakow can get
one to fill... But they do run a Grade 1 fixture on this day, so why shouldn't
the Frankel party continue Medaglia d'Oro was nothing less than super in
his return, 9 furlongs in 1:47 3/5, final 3 furlongs in :37 1/5. While the
victory was hard fought, Bailey really didn't push the button until the eighth
pole. Poor Volponi. Twice he looked on his way to major wins, but Mineshaft
found another gear in the Suburban as the Whitney winner did today. While
Volponi broke tardily, costing him three to four lengths at the start, it wasn't
the reason he was defeated. Neither was it the ride by Jose Santos. Here's
hoping that smack-talking Phil Johnson doesn't fire Santos. He doesn't
deserve it. Volponi was beaten by better, younger horses in his last two starts.
But we do hope P.G. keeps the plain-speak going. It's fun and adds some color to
the mundane trainer talk one often hears. For Frankel, it was Grade 1 number 16
on the year. Not bad for a bug-boy when compared to, say, the likes of an Allen
Jerkens.
Sunday, August 3: Three-year-olds take the spotlight. We all know how
effective Peace Rules can be when he dominate the pace. He did so in
winning Monmouth's Haskell under clever handling from Prado, Grade 1 number 17
for Frankel and Grade 1 number two of the weekend for owner Edmund
Gann... Sky Mesa was an excellent second and appears ready to peak in the
Travers... As for Funny Cide, he showed only dull speed throughout after
breaking tardily. After getting bumped soundly between rivals into the first
turn, he was never it while racing wide throughout. He showed class to earn show
money in the late stages. On Monday, Barclay (interview by appointment
only, please) Tagg said the gelding returned with a slightly elevated
temperature, 102, enough to make him race dully and possibly enough to keep him
out of the Travers if all is not 100 percent. If he does run, the recent illness
is sure to take some of the pressure off while insuring that the New York-bred
gelding will add to his legend should he win it... Empire Maker was
beaten, too, but his was a good Jim Dandy second compared to Funny Cide's bad
third. Some believe jockey Bailey was over-confident. Dairy believes that Jerry
might have done some continuing of the colt's education process. We buy into
Frankel's explanation that Empire Maker wasn't focused. The colt still does that
goofy lug-in number soon after straightening away. Still he was a good re-rally
second to the much, much improved Strong Hope. It is about time to stop
under-estimating that colt who looks the part and will set the Travers pace. As for
Empire Maker, likely Travers favorite? Expect Frankel to put him on the fence as
he trains him up to the Midsummer Derby. At that point, figure J.D. will put him
into the race, like he did while winning the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial and
Belmont Stakes.
Monday, August 4: Hall of Fame Day. And thus the day belonged to the
new inductees: the late Sonny Hine, jockey Mike Smith, and two
dominant racehorses on their best game, Precisionist and the mare Dance
Smartly. But the day also belonged to two other Hall of Famers, trainer Bill
Mott and Bailey, who combined to win the National Museum of Racing and Hall
of Fame Handicap with Stroll, a very serious turf horse. Diary believes
he is a future star. Stroll drew off to win impressively, just as he had in
Monmouth's Lamplighter previously. Despite the fact that the long-striding
turfer did not handle the yielding ground as well as he the firm footing when
last seen at the Jersey shore, he ran fast enough to complete 9 furlongs in
1:49.34, shading his last 3 furlongs in :36 3/5. This is a very good racehorse.