New Page 1

Left Nav



Advanced Search






 
Commentary Corner

Favorites Good for Percentages, Bad for Pocketbook
By Staff Writer
Aug 5, 2003, 18:48


PRINT THIS REPORT

The graded stakes horses stabled here have been putting on a great show. As usual. Debuts of the juveniles Birdstone and Value Plus were something to behold. Saratoga in a nutshell and why it's the best race meet on the planet.

On balance, however, the first two weeks of this session have been furlongs from the nirvana horseplayers have to come expect. This year, it seems that the day-to-day Saratoga fare has become victim of past successes and its own lofty reputation.

Every horseman, everyone, wants to win here. Perhaps this concept of a "super meet" is as dangerous to the well being of handicappers and bettors as those races dominated by the "super trainer."

In a recent Washington Post column, feted horseplayer Andy Beyer wrote about the advent of the super trainer and how horsemen with percentages higher than the winning rate of post time favorites are distorting the results to the extent that traditional handicapping techniques have become moot. Trainer handicapping; not horse handicapping.

With the sport's most powerful horsemen pointing for Saratoga, they come here loaded for bear. Paraphrasing the line delivered by Mrs. Carl Reiner in the famed restaurant scene from the movie "When Harry Met Sally," trainers on the backside here are looking at Bobby Frankel and saying: "I'll have what he's having."

Todd Pletcher, his gang of 2-year-olds, and stakes stars present and future, is on a record pace to smash Hall of Famer Sylvester Veitch's Spa training record of 24 wins in 24 days. And it doesn't look like he's going to need six weeks to do so. He already has 15. Add the usual array of high percentage, high profile world class trainers and is it any  wonder why favorites never seem to lose here anymore?

After two weeks, favorites are winning at 48 percent. If you're making money at this meet, consider yourself blessed. Indeed, if you're cashing all those tickets on favorites, know that the money in your pocket is only on loan from the association. Without an occasional score, you will not withstand the pari-mutuel take even if NYRA's is the lowest in the country on straight wagers.

But this is what can happen at a super meet, featuring super trainers and super jockeys. As you read this, three jockeys, Jerry Bailey, John Velazquez and Edgar Prado, are winning over half the races. Jockey handicapping; not horse handicapping. Winning horseplayers at Saratoga these days are little more than lemmings, following the obvious all the way to the cashier's window. With the exception of those graded stakes races and a handful of exciting 2-year-olds, the daily fare has become boringly routine. No wonder handle is down despite the fact that winning favorites routinely make for more churn.

The percentage of winning favorites likely will revert to a more reasonable 33-to-35 percent, still high, but within reason. A return to normal percentages can create opportunities for real value, like the 6.70-1 offered on Strong Hope because prepping Empire Maker was over-bet at 3-10. But those opportunities have been precious few.

Diary, I can no longer afford to pick 37 percent winners at the meet. They're beating my brains in and misery does not love company, even though I hear the same story everywhere I go. So, in the name of tradition, I'm calling an audible. This used to be a 24-day stand. So be it. For me, the real Saratoga meet begins today.

Wednesday, July 30: You can go home again, and Teresa Pompay can have one ready to run! Debuting state-bred Stand On Top withstood stretch-long pressure to defeat Star Celebrity, especially worth noting because when a Todd Pletcher-trained 2-year-old gets beat, it's major news these days...The second baby race of the day and a riding double for Cornelio Velasquez. Velasquez was partnered with a Wayne Lukas 2-year-old from Kentucky. They've all been running from there and Golden Tones was no exception. Third finisher Exciting Metro took a circuitous route through the straight and is worth noting. Ditto Pam's Wildcat who flipped over in the paddock and deserves another chance... Price inflated Dixie Waltz withstood pace pressure throughout as the Nick Zito runners continue to race well; odds-on Renaissance Lady never recovering from her gate problems but appearing empty throughout, anyway. Double Scoop was so sharp that Pat Day had her on the sprint engine throughout. Looks ready to rejoin stakes company.

Thursday, July 31: Final Table pressed an extremely fast pace throughout, so along came Graze to get the money. Not many have flown down the center of the track at this meeting to win. Debuting Marylebone did something you seldom see from a 2-year-old, rally boldly on the fence to win. Gutsy filly is Pletcher trainee. Sheer Luck made a strong, wide rally in same race; note... When you're going well... Pletcher's Go Deputy drew off to win the fifth on turf after drawing in from the also-eligibles. It was an impressive two-move, late rally performance... Shug McGaughey has a runner in A Great Team, who handled his debut with complete authority. Some race with a name is sure to be in his future, probably sooner than later... Bailey could not have been more confident aboard Andover Lady, distaining the soft pace to run down nine rivals late. Apprentice Shannon Uske broke her Saratoga maiden aboard Allen Jerkens' Lilah. Rushing up after breaking tardily, the filly was tiring in the final furlong but Uske didn't rattle or get whip happy. She hand-rode Lilah and the sprinter lasted. Good for Uske, job nicely done.

Friday, August 1: Seems to me owner-trainer Sam Lerman is due some good fortune. All his runners, including Cupasoup in today's second race are outrunning their odds and getting beat in the final stages... A demonstration of what makes Bailey, well, Bailey, in today's fifth race when he cleverly positioned and got through on the entire field, coming up the fence under a strong-rally Cloak of Vagueness for Phil Hauswald... Three-year-old turf filly Marc's Rainbow was much the best taking her preliminary allowance condition and looks set to re-join stakes company sometime soon... Duke's Crossing one of a handlful of runners to win from the clouds at speed-favoring Saratoga beneath a fist-pumping Bailey. Wow! Thought fist pumps at his level were reserved for graded stakes. But that's why I love this game; learning something new every day... First two finishers in the Honorable Miss ran great. Shine Again, surprisingly sharp and on the pace throughout, just missed in an extremely game effort. Upsetter Willa On The Move, 9-2 in the gate and 5-2 at the quarter pole, made bold wide rally to be up in time, handling the off going very well. What a nice filly. Hope they both come back for the Ballerina.

Saturday, August 2: Whitney Day. So why shouldn't the party continue for Marylou, John Henderson and Nick Zito? And what better place than in the winners' circle? Birdstone, a half brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Birdtown, won his first start as comprehensively as any juvenile debuting here in my memory. Fast, professional, a good mover and, did I mention fast? Today's damp surface was especially glib, but 6-furlongs in 1:10 for a debutting youngster is, you know, fast. Zito thinking Hopeful, but don't be surprised if he pops up in an allowance race next, if Mike Lakow can get one to fill... But they do run a Grade 1 fixture on this day, so why shouldn't the Frankel party continue Medaglia d'Oro was nothing less than super in his return, 9 furlongs in 1:47 3/5, final 3 furlongs in :37 1/5. While the victory was hard fought, Bailey really didn't push the button until the eighth pole. Poor Volponi. Twice he looked on his way to major wins, but Mineshaft found another gear in the Suburban as the Whitney winner did today. While Volponi broke tardily, costing him three to four lengths at the start, it wasn't the reason he was defeated. Neither was it the ride by Jose Santos. Here's hoping that smack-talking Phil Johnson doesn't fire Santos. He doesn't deserve it. Volponi was beaten by better, younger horses in his last two starts. But we do hope P.G. keeps the plain-speak going. It's fun and adds some color to the mundane trainer talk one often hears. For Frankel, it was Grade 1 number 16 on the year. Not bad for a bug-boy when compared to, say, the likes of an Allen Jerkens.

Sunday, August 3: Three-year-olds take the spotlight. We all know how effective Peace Rules can be when he dominate the pace. He did so in winning Monmouth's Haskell under clever handling from Prado, Grade 1 number 17 for Frankel and Grade 1 number two of the weekend for owner Edmund Gann... Sky Mesa was an excellent second and appears ready to peak in the Travers... As for Funny Cide, he showed only dull speed throughout after breaking tardily. After getting bumped soundly between rivals into the first turn, he was never it while racing wide throughout. He showed class to earn show money in the late stages. On Monday, Barclay (interview by appointment only, please) Tagg said the gelding returned with a slightly elevated temperature, 102, enough to make him race dully and possibly enough to keep him out of the Travers if all is not 100 percent. If he does run, the recent illness is sure to take some of the pressure off while insuring that the New York-bred gelding will add to his legend should he win it... Empire Maker was beaten, too, but his was a good Jim Dandy second compared to Funny Cide's bad third. Some believe jockey Bailey was over-confident. Dairy believes that Jerry might have done some continuing of the colt's education process. We buy into Frankel's explanation that Empire Maker wasn't focused. The colt still does that goofy lug-in number soon after straightening away. Still he was a good re-rally second to the much, much improved Strong Hope. It is about time to stop under-estimating that colt who looks the part and will set the Travers pace. As for Empire Maker, likely Travers favorite? Expect Frankel to put him on the fence as he trains him up to the Midsummer Derby. At that point, figure J.D. will put him into the race, like he did while winning the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial and Belmont Stakes.

Monday, August 4: Hall of Fame Day. And thus the day belonged to the new inductees: the late Sonny Hine, jockey Mike Smith, and two dominant racehorses on their best game, Precisionist and the mare Dance Smartly. But the day also belonged to two other Hall of Famers, trainer Bill Mott and Bailey, who combined to win the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame Handicap with Stroll, a very serious turf horse. Diary believes he is a future star. Stroll drew off to win impressively, just as he had in Monmouth's Lamplighter previously. Despite the fact that the long-striding turfer did not handle the yielding ground as well as he the firm footing when last seen at the Jersey shore, he ran fast enough to complete 9 furlongs in 1:49.34, shading his last 3 furlongs in :36 3/5. This is a very good racehorse.

© Copyright 2004 by GamblersWorld.com, Inc.

Top of Page

 

RightNav
Featured Sponsor

LATEST HEADLINES
Triple Crown Watch
Brown's Triple Crown dream dashed
2008 Belmont Stakes Analysis
Big Brown has slight crack in hoof
Big Brown cruises to another easy victory in Preakness
News & Views
Economic Fallout at the Preakness
State betting on OTB salvage plan
Breakdown of Six Kentucky Derby Favorites
State lawmakers ponder legalizing Internet horse wagers
Contender Workouts
Tuesday, June 7, 2005
Monday, June 6, 2005
Sunday, June 5, 2005
Thursday, June 2, 2005

Thoroughbred Racing

Top Stories
Headlines
Brisnet Race of the Week
Weekend Updates
News & Views
Leaders
Top-10 Poll
3 Year Old Poll
Triple Crown Watch
Televised Racing
Harness Racing

Daily Racing Form

Entries
Results
Articles

Major Race Tracks

ALL TRACKS
Arlington International
Belmont Park
Calder RaceCourse
Churchill Downs
Del Mar
Delaware Park
Fair Grounds
Golden Gate Fields
Meadowlands
Santa Anita Park
Saratoga
Sorry, no articles were found.



All contents Copyright © 1999-2003 GamblersWorld.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved