The date: August 23, 2003. The place: Saratoga Springs Amtrak Station. It's the Sunday night after the Travers and the crowd eagerly awaits the arrival of the last train back to Manhattan. One member of that crowd, me, stands before the waste receptacle unloading reams of paper from my gym bag into the can. These reams of paper were covered in fine print and scribbly script: I was tossing result charts for each race conducted on the NYRA circuit during the preceding five months and with them all kinds of esoteric data such as whether a horse won or finished within one length of the winner in its next race AND in its prior three races-the ultimate key race survey. As I was letting out ballast for the long journey back to the City, I was approached by someone who obviously had been to the track that day but perhaps was considering the merits of a more dedicated interest in the Sport of Kings and he asked me, "Does all of that information do you any good." I truthfully replied, "Not this year but that won't stop me from being back here this time next year." I should hope he understood.

I intend to once again take in the airs (I tasted the water once, maybe twice: dehydration is preferable) at Saratoga Race Course notwithstanding last year's lack of success. The Spa epitomizes what makes this game the Greatest Game.

Turning opportunity into good fortune requires a keen eye for detail, an anticipation of trends before the masses catch on and knowing when to jump ship on an overbet favorite.

2004 will be my twentieth consecutive year attending the races at The Spa. I've learned a few things over the years that if I only were able to follow my own advice, every year would be a winning one. I therefore offer the following dozen anecdotes based on those twenty years of ups and downs.

1.Bring money. It's a nice place and there are plenty of things to do besides going to the track. Me, I'm at Siro's before the races for the seminar, after the races at Siro's for dinner at least once (win or lose but the prices are easier to swallow on a winning day) and then off to handicapping the next day's card. Is there really anything else to do?

2.The fastest horse doesn't win every race but they do win a lot of them. Saratoga is a really high quality meet and bombs at Saratoga become short prices in the Fall-which means those winners probably were the best horse all along. At the other end of the scale, $35,000 claimers are the bottom on the turf in New York, a $25,000 claimer may be dropping in class. Pay attention.

3.Beware of Bailey bearing favorites. Can you really take all those 2-5 shots? He's nearly always overbet. When he isn't-take a second look, especially on the turf. I think Edgar Prado is sitting on a big meet.

4.Pletcher and Velazquez will win a lot of races. Whether they can duplicate last year's tour de force remains to be seen, just watch out for those 7-1 shots that for some reason no one notices. Also keep in mind that Johnny V's agent is none other than the King of Saratoga, Angel Cordero, Jr. That cannot hurt.

5.Stay away from favorites in New York Bred races. I've never done a study but I've got to believe that a disproportionate number of NYB favorites go up in smoke every year at every NYRA meet. It sure seems as if the big money is made when one of them does flop.

6.Speed on dirt. Closers on turf. How many times have you seen the rail horse coast around the track in a 1 1/8 mile race on the dirt? How many times have you seen a horse with a ten length lead on the turf going into the far turn finish up the track?

7.Bet the highest last race speed figure when the horse is 5-1 or better (except for mud numbers on today's dry track). Bet more if the horse won its last race. How can you go wrong with this one? This angle always seems to apply to the Finger Lakes shippers.

8.The horse that is between 5-1 and 10-1 and should be 25-1 is a horse that deserves a second or a third look. Double your bets on a horse that opens at 5-1 and drifts higher throughout the betting. Even smart money can get buried in the huge pools at The Spa.

9.Vinny Blengs always wins a race at odds higher than 10-1. There's an amen corner out there on this one.

10.Here's one you've probably never heard: Randy Schulhofer's winners almost always show at least two, but preferably three, five furlong works spaced EXACTLY five days apart. This angle is a no play if the last two works are six days apart; no exceptions. His father trained horses exactly the same way.

11. Forget about apprentices who have done well at Belmont and Aqueduct. They lose at Saratoga. Nearly all of the races are won by Top Ten Jockeys. Jockeys who are not winning after the first week or so will not win for the rest of the meet. Demand huge prices if you otherwise dare.

12.This angle is best exploited when at the track. How many times have you seen a 5-1 horse warm up with a couple of two furlong blow-outs at high speed around the Clubhouse turn and then proceed to annihilate the field? 'Nuff said.

The complete road to profitability at Saratoga lies in an understanding of the Trainers and their patterns. History seems to repeat itself at Saratoga year after year. In 2003, Pletcher was beyond unbelievable. In 2004, Pletcher shows no signs of letting up. He does win a lot of races, some of them at a price and it's a real question whether you should zig instead of zag when considering his charges.

In 2003, Bobby Frankel and Steve Asmussen had decent meets: Eight and seven wins respectively. My feeling, however, is that during the 2003 meet they both ignited a lot of money on short-priced losers. In 2004, Frankel is having an incendiary Belmont Spring-Summer meet, and Asmussen not only is leading the country in wins but he also is second to John Servis in money won. Your call.

Claiming trainers and "miracle workers"-we all know who they are-rarely do well at The Spa. I've taken a look at the Condition Book for the first three weeks posted on NYRA's website and there seems to be enough claiming races for some claiming trainers. Expect Scott Lake and Richard Dutrow to dominate that bunch.

Bill Mott, who finished second to Pletcher last year, likely will do so again. His Spring Meet has been successful and he even is starting to win (sometimes, but not often enough to play) with first time starters.

Phil Serpe had an extraordinary 2003 meet. I think he stands poised to do well in 2004 based on the many second place finishes his horses have delivered lately. Ditto for Kiaran McLaughlin and Christophe Clement. Last year at this time, McLaughlin was winning everything in sight. By the time he got to Saratoga, all his horses had cleared their conditions and there was no gas left in the tank. McLaughlin has been finishing second and is starting to come around at the right time. Clement's charges have been runners-up often lately coupled with a handful of winners. Expect a big Spa meet for Serpe, Clement and McLaughlin.

The "watch-out" trainer is George Weaver. He has dropped bombs at Belmont with both maidens (Middlesex County-off Saratoga works) and stakes horses (Christine's Outlaw-who may be the best miler on the grass in the country right now). The masses will catch on to George Weaver and the window of opportunity is closing.

No discussion of Saratoga trainers would be complete without giving mention to The Giant Killer, Allen "Chief" Jerkens, and Claude "Shug" McGaughey. The Saratoga met plays to their inherent strengths: Maidens, allowance and stakes horses. They will win many races in the coming weeks.

Finally, there is Nick Zito. The quirkiest of all the trainers listed, Nick is a blowtorch on the turf and with first time starters, life and death on an overbet 2-5 on Thursday, and on Saturday-there he is holding Mary Lou's hand as she walks through the mud in high heels while holding her horse's shank on the way to the winner's circle. You get the picture.

This year I'm going by car.
May the horse be with you.