FLOWER ALLEY

BELLAMY ROAD

GIACOMO  (LS)

Never to be understated, handicapping the Kentucky Derby offers the most difficult challenge for any serious analyst.  Bowing to tradition rather than sanity, we still ask young 3 year old colts to pack an overwhelming 126 pounds over a grueling distance of 1 mile and a quarter for the first time in front of 130,000 or so screaming people.  More often than not, the best horse does not win.  Rather the most fortunate or currently mature colt gets the roses. 
Trivia question: Does anybody remember Monarchos or War Emblem?  And that was only within the last 5 years!!  I believe I’ve made my point.

Keeping this in mind while not trying to pinpoint the next Secretariat, this synopsis offers the best possible opportunity of winning on exactly this day at exactly this moment.  It’s amazing the size and strength potential a 3 year old will achieve comparing the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in November.

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FLOWER ALLEY will be forgotten by most “experts” as an also-ran to Afleet Alex in our “what have you done for me lately” world.  No doubt Alex was truly best in the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby while this horse had a useful effort negotiating a short stretch wide at Oaklawn.  Should it suddenly rain come Derby post time, we move way up here, as this offspring of Distorted Humor will love a wet track.  Most major concern is a limited resume of only 4 races but accomplished over 4 different race tracks.  

Motivation will not be a problem for Flower Alley’s jockey, Jorge Chavez.  After suffering through a miserable injury plagued 2004, Chavez has bounced back nicely regaining top stakes mounts again.  Trainer Todd Pletcher will have this guy prepared while attention will be paid on his other higher profile starters (Bandini).  Expect a very attractive price of 18-1 or better. 

No need to waste words hyping BELLAMY ROAD.  He could have won the Wood Memorial by 25 lengths, running a sensational race that will not be soon forgotten.  Should he repeat that effort, the likely 2-1 favorite will be remembered as an underlay we all missed.  Up and coming jockey Javier Castellano will have Bellamy Road in a prime stalking position and possibly the lead after 6 furlongs and cannot be dismissed.   Should Bellamy not hit the board, look for a major executive and two Yankee players to get axed by The Boss on Monday.

Love the longshot possibility of tabbing GIACOMO to run a huge race.  Outside of his first maiden effort he’s accomplished six excellent races in a row against top California competition.  He could have won the Santa Anita Derby but was caught wide behind horses finishing only two lengths from the winner’s circle.  Giacomo has trained brilliantly, working last Sunday in a bullet 1:11 and 4/5 for 6 furlongs.

The human connections are also a plus.  Trainer John Shirreffs is obsessive about placing starters where they belong and will scratch instantly if his horses are not 100% healthy.  Giacomo will have Mike Smith in the saddle, maybe the most underrated top jockey over the last 15 years.  Smith is seeking redemption for two disappointing Kentucky Derby favorites and other highly backed colts.  He made his name at Churchill Downs, vying with Pat Day for riding titles.  After several Breeders Cup victories, this could be his career vindication.