We will know a lot more about 5 p.m. tomorrow, right after the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Fla. There are 12 horses entered. There are two more on the also-eligible list. Starting from post 5 is Barbaro, unbeaten and unchallenged in three lifetime starts.
Barbaro is owned by Roy and Gretchen Jackson, of Unionville, smack in the middle of Chester County horse country. Three-time U.S. Olympian Michael Matz, who lives in Collegeville, trains the colt.
The Jacksons' Lael Stable has had some success through the years, but never a horse with the potential of Barbaro. Matz is just 6 years into the training business after a lifetime as a show jumper that earned him eight Pan American Games medals (including five golds) and participation in the Montreal (1976), Barcelona (1992) and Atlanta (1996) Olympics. He won a team silver medal in Atlanta.
If Barbaro wins tomorrow and becomes one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, Matz's "other" story will become very big news. On July 19, 1989, Matz, 55, was a passenger on United Airlines Flight 232 from Denver to Philadelphia. One of the plane's engines exploded. The pilot explained to the 285 passengers that the landing in a Sioux City, Iowa, cornfield was not going to be smooth.
In fact, the plane crashed in that cornfield and 112 of the passengers died. Matz was able to lead several unaccompanied young children out through heavy smoke to safety. Then, he went back and rescued an infant.
So, if Barbaro passes the test tomorrow, the Triple Crown pressure is not likely to overwhelm Matz. The real pressure tomorrow will be finding out whether Barbaro can run on dirt.
All the colt's races have been on grass. He broke his maiden at Delaware Park by 8 ½ lengths. He won the Laurel Futurity at Laurel Park in November by 8 lengths. He won the Tropical Park Derby at Calder by 3 ¾ lengths on New Year's Day. So far, 33 horses have finished behind Barbaro. He runs seemingly without effort, giving him the look and style of a potential superstar.
But they don't run the Triple Crown races on grass. So, owners and trainer want to see if the colt can transform his grass form to the main track. Thus, the Holy Bull, a mile-and-an-eighth dirt race.
"He works very well on the main track," Matz said on Wednesday. "Sunday's [workout] was exactly what we wanted. He's where we want him to be right now. All we can do now is wait for Saturday and hope for good weather.
"My assistant, Peter Brett, who was a riding champion in Dubai and a man whose opinion I value very highly, told me all along he'd be an excellent grass horse, so that's why we started him on the grass. But after his first start, those other races on turf just fit perfectly with his training schedule.
"The Holy Bull fits perfectly as his next race, even if it's on the main track. So right now we're keeping our options open. He's acting like he's a real nice horse, but if he shows us Saturday that he doesn't like the main track as well as he does the grass, we will progress in a different direction."
Barbaro trained at Fair Hill, in the northeast corner of Maryland, until shipping south to Florida for the winter. How the colt will do on the main track really is a mystery. Very few horses are equally proficient on grass and dirt. But when you have a horse with this kind of potential and the Derby looming, you just have to find out.
A horse's pedigree is often an indicator of what surface the horse will prefer. With Barbaro, it is not that easy. He is a son of Dynaformer, winner of the Jersey Derby when it was a still a dirt race, and a sire of major stakes winners on grass and dirt.
Dynaformer has sired Perfect Drift and Dynever, two horses who were major stakes winners on dirt. He has also sired star grass females Film Maker, Sand Springs and Riskaverse as well as steeplechase champion McDynamo.
Perhaps, Barbaro will be able to run on dirt just as well as he has raced on grass. If he is the exception to the normal horse-racing rules, watch out. This could be happening all over again